Q’s Frozen Four Preview- All roads lead to St. Louis!
Well Thursday is a bitter sweet day in the life of Q. It is the national semi finals for the NCAA hockey tournament, AKA the Frozen Four. It is sweet because its the best of the best of college hockey, but its bitter because UNH is no there. Having been to two frozen fours myself I have to say that it is a great experience, hopefully will get to a couple more in my life time. It is much better when your team is there though. The first one I was at was in 2003 in Buffalo, UNH made it to the championship game that year losing to Minnesota. The next year made it down the frozen four in Boston. That year Denver beat Maine in a great 1-0 game. Highly recommend going to one if you get the chance. So on to this years frozen four in St. Louis. The first game is at 4, that has Maine against Michigan State, that is followed at 8 with Boston College against North Dakota.
So what can we expect out of the first game, Maine vs. Michigan State (MSU)? Well these are two pretty even teams. Both were the #3 seeds in there region, Maine is 23-14-2,MSU is 24-13-3. Offensively Maine averages 3.36 goals per game, while MSU averages 3.25 a game, on defense MSU gives up 2.48 goals a game compared to 2.44 a game. On the special teams Maine power play clicks at 25.7% rate #1 in the country, while MSU is at 19.1%, on the penalty kill MSU kills 87.0% of the power plays they give up, while Maine kills 85.6%. Going by the stats this should be a tight even game, but then again what else can you expect from a frozen four game? So what will win this game for either team? Well both have two solid goalies both let up 1 goal a game in the regionals. Looking at the goalies you see two totally different goalies, in Maine have the 6'7" Ben Bishop while in MSU have the 5'6" Jeff Lerg. But both play some great goal when needed. The key to me is who's forwards step up more. Maine has more depth with 4 solid lines, but Michigan State has 2 really good lines. If MSU can get some solid play from there back 2 lines they have an excellent shot at winning. Maine has the experience that might over take MSU. I watched both teams in the regionals, and for MSU Tim Kennedy really impressed me, he could be a key for an MSU win. While for Maine I don't think it's a secret that Michel Leveille is the go to guy for the Blackbears. MSU needs to stay out of the box and keep Maine's power play off the ice. Maine needs to do what they did in the regionals, and clear the puck out of in front of the net for Bishop. They really impressed me in that aspect of the game. So how does this game end up? Well not usually one for predictions, but since UNH is out I feel like I can go out on a limb here. I am going to say we see a 3-2 game with Maine coming out on top, Maine's experience pays off in the third and Leveille is the difference. ..:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />
So that brings us the night cap, BC vs. North Dakota. BC is probably the hottest team in the country right now winning their last 12 games, and is almost everyone's choice to take the title. So how do I see this going. Well first lets look at the state. BC is 28-11-1, North Dakota is 24-13-5. On offense BC averages 3.38 goals a game, while ND averages 3.55 goals a game. On defense BC gives up 2.17 goals a game while ND gives up 2.62 goals a game. In the power play BC is at a 19.5% while ND is at 23.8%. On the penalty kill BC is killing penalties at a 88.6%, while BC is at 83.3%. In net all of the spot light has been on Corey Schneider of BC. He is a first round draft pick, and has won 14 out of his last 15 starts with 1.54 goals against in that time, while putting up an eye opening .948 save percentage. For North Dakota it is the little talked about Philippe Lamoureux, since Christmas he gone 17-3-4 with a 2.13 goals against while putting up .924 save percentage, though Schneider gets all the attention Lamoureaux has shown he can pull his own weight. Schneider does have the experience with playing the national championship game last year. On offense ND has 4 lines that can score at anytime, BC has 2 very solid lines. They have not missed a beat since Brian Boyle moved back to defense. On the blue line BC has been extremely well, only allowing 1 goal in the regionals. ND did allow 10 goals, but to probably the 2 best offenses in the nation, Michigan and Minnesota. All the talk about BC in the last month is about Boyles move to D, but do not over look ND as they have a deep defense. Specail teams will be interesting as ND #3 power play goes against BC #4 penalty kill. So how does this game come out? Well I have only seen 2 ND game in the last couple of weeks, but they were 2 really good games against Minnesota. I have seen quite a bit of BC over the last month. I have heard almost all of the expert pick BC. But I have to say I see this game going to North Dakota in a 5-3 game, with an empty netter to seal the deal. So how does North Dakota win this game? Well I see them coming out and scoring the first goal. I have seen BC come out flat in the first 10 or so minutes in the last couple of games. In the regionals St. Lawrence controlled the first 10 minutes, and against Miami-Ohio, Miami controlled the first period and the beginning of the second. Once they got the first goal in both of the games the controlled the tempo and the game. It has been awhile since BC has had to come from behind and play a tight game. I think ND is a bigger team and will wear down the small forwards of BC. In the Miami game I saw Boyle take a few stupid penalties. I think that could come back to hurt BC.
So there we have my picks, and I see a Maine-North Dakota championship game on Saturday a night. A rematch October when Maine beat ND twice in North Dakota. I will do a preview before the championship game, and will see if I am right about my picks Thursday. With my track record with predications, don't be surprised to see a MSU-BC final.
So what can we expect out of the first game, Maine vs. Michigan State (MSU)? Well these are two pretty even teams. Both were the #3 seeds in there region, Maine is 23-14-2,MSU is 24-13-3. Offensively Maine averages 3.36 goals per game, while MSU averages 3.25 a game, on defense MSU gives up 2.48 goals a game compared to 2.44 a game. On the special teams Maine power play clicks at 25.7% rate #1 in the country, while MSU is at 19.1%, on the penalty kill MSU kills 87.0% of the power plays they give up, while Maine kills 85.6%. Going by the stats this should be a tight even game, but then again what else can you expect from a frozen four game? So what will win this game for either team? Well both have two solid goalies both let up 1 goal a game in the regionals. Looking at the goalies you see two totally different goalies, in Maine have the 6'7" Ben Bishop while in MSU have the 5'6" Jeff Lerg. But both play some great goal when needed. The key to me is who's forwards step up more. Maine has more depth with 4 solid lines, but Michigan State has 2 really good lines. If MSU can get some solid play from there back 2 lines they have an excellent shot at winning. Maine has the experience that might over take MSU. I watched both teams in the regionals, and for MSU Tim Kennedy really impressed me, he could be a key for an MSU win. While for Maine I don't think it's a secret that Michel Leveille is the go to guy for the Blackbears. MSU needs to stay out of the box and keep Maine's power play off the ice. Maine needs to do what they did in the regionals, and clear the puck out of in front of the net for Bishop. They really impressed me in that aspect of the game. So how does this game end up? Well not usually one for predictions, but since UNH is out I feel like I can go out on a limb here. I am going to say we see a 3-2 game with Maine coming out on top, Maine's experience pays off in the third and Leveille is the difference. ..:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />
So that brings us the night cap, BC vs. North Dakota. BC is probably the hottest team in the country right now winning their last 12 games, and is almost everyone's choice to take the title. So how do I see this going. Well first lets look at the state. BC is 28-11-1, North Dakota is 24-13-5. On offense BC averages 3.38 goals a game, while ND averages 3.55 goals a game. On defense BC gives up 2.17 goals a game while ND gives up 2.62 goals a game. In the power play BC is at a 19.5% while ND is at 23.8%. On the penalty kill BC is killing penalties at a 88.6%, while BC is at 83.3%. In net all of the spot light has been on Corey Schneider of BC. He is a first round draft pick, and has won 14 out of his last 15 starts with 1.54 goals against in that time, while putting up an eye opening .948 save percentage. For North Dakota it is the little talked about Philippe Lamoureux, since Christmas he gone 17-3-4 with a 2.13 goals against while putting up .924 save percentage, though Schneider gets all the attention Lamoureaux has shown he can pull his own weight. Schneider does have the experience with playing the national championship game last year. On offense ND has 4 lines that can score at anytime, BC has 2 very solid lines. They have not missed a beat since Brian Boyle moved back to defense. On the blue line BC has been extremely well, only allowing 1 goal in the regionals. ND did allow 10 goals, but to probably the 2 best offenses in the nation, Michigan and Minnesota. All the talk about BC in the last month is about Boyles move to D, but do not over look ND as they have a deep defense. Specail teams will be interesting as ND #3 power play goes against BC #4 penalty kill. So how does this game come out? Well I have only seen 2 ND game in the last couple of weeks, but they were 2 really good games against Minnesota. I have seen quite a bit of BC over the last month. I have heard almost all of the expert pick BC. But I have to say I see this game going to North Dakota in a 5-3 game, with an empty netter to seal the deal. So how does North Dakota win this game? Well I see them coming out and scoring the first goal. I have seen BC come out flat in the first 10 or so minutes in the last couple of games. In the regionals St. Lawrence controlled the first 10 minutes, and against Miami-Ohio, Miami controlled the first period and the beginning of the second. Once they got the first goal in both of the games the controlled the tempo and the game. It has been awhile since BC has had to come from behind and play a tight game. I think ND is a bigger team and will wear down the small forwards of BC. In the Miami game I saw Boyle take a few stupid penalties. I think that could come back to hurt BC.
So there we have my picks, and I see a Maine-North Dakota championship game on Saturday a night. A rematch October when Maine beat ND twice in North Dakota. I will do a preview before the championship game, and will see if I am right about my picks Thursday. With my track record with predications, don't be surprised to see a MSU-BC final.
posted by Qman16 at 9:15 PM
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